The odds of dying
The odds on this page compare how many Americans died of each cause in one year with the size of the population.
132×
as likely to die from a motor vehicle crash as from an air travel accident
Lifetime odds
Motor vehicle crash
1 in 101
Air travel, including small planes
1 in 13,252
- Air travel, including small planes
- Motor vehicle crash
Lifetime odds of dying, by cause
The chance that an American born today dies of each cause, at 2024 rates. The scale grows tenfold at each line. Pick a cause to compare it in the box above.
Computed the way the National Safety Council does it: deaths in 2024 divided into the U.S. population, then divided by life expectancy. Sources: CDC WONDER, Underlying Cause of Death, 2018-2024, Single Race; VSRR Provisional Drug Overdose Death Counts; Odds of Dying. Opioid overdoses overlap with other causes, including suicide.
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Last checked .
They are averages across everyone in the U.S. Your own odds depend on your age, your health and what you do every day. They are most useful for comparing one risk with another.
Quick facts
- Heart disease caused 683,491 U.S. deaths in 2024, more than any other cause (CDC WONDER, final data).
- The lifetime odds of dying from heart disease are about 1 in 6, at 2024 death rates (CDC WONDER, final data).
- The lifetime odds of dying from a motor vehicle crash are about 1 in 101, at 2024 death rates (CDC WONDER, final data).
- The lifetime odds of dying from a lightning strike are about 1 in 287,123, at 2024 death rates (CDC WONDER, final data).
Questions people ask
- What are the odds of dying in a car crash?
- About 1 in 101 over a lifetime, at 2024 rates. In 2024, 42,789 people in the U.S. died in motor vehicle crashes, according to final CDC data. In any one year the odds are about 1 in 7,949.
- What is the most likely way to die in the U.S.?
- Heart disease. It caused 683,491 deaths in 2024, more than any other cause, according to CDC data. The lifetime odds are about 1 in 6.
- What does "1 in 100" lifetime odds mean?
- That on average, about one person in 100 in the U.S. would die of that cause over a lifetime if this year's death rates held. It's an average, not your personal risk.
More questions
- Are these odds the same for everyone?
- No. They are national averages. Age, health, where you live and what you do change your own odds.
About these numbers
How are the odds calculated?
We count deaths by underlying cause from the CDC's final death certificate data, in CDC WONDER. Each death certificate names one underlying cause.
The one-year odds divide the U.S. population by the number of deaths from that cause in the year. If 1 in 10,000 people died of something, the one-year odds are 1 in 10,000.
The lifetime odds divide the one-year odds by U.S. life expectancy at birth, from the CDC's 2024 life table. That gives a rough sense of the chance over a whole life.
What do the odds not tell you?
They are averages for the whole country, so they mix together people with very different risks. For a cause that mostly affects older adults, a young person's real odds are lower than the average, and someone in their 80s faces higher odds.
Lifetime odds also assume this year's death rates hold for a whole life. Rates change over time, so use lifetime odds to compare causes. They don't forecast anyone's death.
Rare causes swing more from year to year, because a small change in the number of deaths moves the odds a lot.
Why compare causes of death?
Because it shows which risks are common and which are rare. Most deaths in the U.S. come from long-term illness, led by heart disease and cancer.